Spending our way out of the recession - Mike Heath for the RaboPlus Blog

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Spending our way out of the recession is not an option

Submitted by Mike Heath on Monday, 15 June 2009 | Category: RaboDirect

Over recent months the government, through tax cuts and reductions in the Official Cash Rate (OCR), has tried to provide stimuli for the economy and to provide more cash in your pocket – the question is, what are people doing with this additional cash? Are they planning to spend their way out of the recession; are people simply squirreling the money away to be able to survive any future demands on their spare cash; or are they paying off their debt?

In conjunction with TNS Conversa, we surveyed Kiwis to find out what they were doing and the key conclusion is that over the next six months 80% intend to maintain or increase their savings.

The concept of spending your way out of a recession is obviously a task people struggle with, in particular when you take into account the constant messages of the past 12 months or more about saving more for your future (KiwiSaver and PIE tax benefits are two key programmes to make saving “easier” and “more attractive”). Also 80% of those surveyed said they had to dip into their savings unexpectedly, with reasons given being cost of living and helping out family.

Term deposits continue to be very popular (45%), particularly amongst the retirees and On Call savings come in at 24%. Interestingly though property still ranks relatively well with 20% saying that it was their preference, Bonds 19% and Managed Funds 19%.

There was also an interesting age split. Younger people are saving more, the middle-aged are trying to retire debt as quickly as they can, and the elderly are focusing on their investments (presumably to grow their capital and the income generating ability).

For those who do have any spare money (23% claim to not have any spare money) they are paying off debt (56%) and putting money into savings accounts (39%).

Over the past three years we have surveyed Kiwi's to see what are their top priorities are when choosing a savings or investment opportunity – what's interesting here is to see how those priorities have changed over time:

2009 Priorities

  1. Fees and charges
  2. Security of money
  3. Access to money
  4. High interest rate
  5. Reputation of financial provider

2008 Priorities

  1. Security of money
  2. High interest rate
  3. Reputation of financial provider
  4. Access to my money
  5. Fees and charges

2007 Priorities

  1. High interest rate
  2. Fees and charges
  3. Reputation of financial provider
  4. Credit rating
  5. Ability to manage online

With the benefit of hindsight, and taking into consideration the changing environment, the above are somewhat no real surprise.

If you want to see how Rob Stock (Sunday Star Times) interpreted the survey results – here is a copy of the article from the weekend (14th June).

16/06/09: Correction

Sorry, I've just realised there was a couple of typos in this blog post.

The research we conducted was with Perceptive not TNS Conversa – apologies Perceptive!.

Paragraph #3 - the percentage of people unexpectedly withdrawing money was nearly 20% (not 80%) i.e. “In the past six months nearly 60 per cent of people made withdrawals on their savings, a third of which were unanticipated.”

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3 Comments

Comment by Stephen on 17-06-2009 03:58


The comment "The concept of spending your way out of a recession is obviously a task people struggle with, in particular when you take into account the constant messages of the past 12 months or more about saving more for your future"

It is obviously stupid concept and always will be to think you can spend to get out of debt. Obviously governments have been very stupid over the last little while to spend, put the taxpayer more in debt, raise the interest rate borrowers are or will be paying soon, decrease the return savers get and drive up inflation (a wealth transfer from the poor to the rich). Fortunately New Zealand has not been as dumb as USA, UK or Europe. Instead we do nothing and hope the issue will go away. It wont.

Comment by Peter Rama on 17-06-2009 07:42


More money would come into NZ if the Banks would improve their term deposit interest rates. There is a feeling out there that the Bank have increased their margins and have made provisions and argue that the cost of overseas funds is costly but when one looks at the fact the 60 to 70% of the funds are coming to the banks domestically and only 30%to 40% is from overseas.
The retires are the ones that are being hit and punsihed for having a savings plan as atleast the rate of return has dropped as much as 50% from 8.5% to 4.5%.


Comment by Mr B.Faulkner on 18-06-2009 12:15


Inflation is next followed by the
D word.

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