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Outlook for Investment Markets - Many sharemarkets bottomed out at least temporarily in the second half of November. This could be a sign that the worst of investor nervousness about the global credit crisis is behind us. There has also been further stimulus, notably the US Federal Reserve's historic cut to near-zero interest rates. Despite all this, the immediate economic outlook continues to deteriorate. Markets are likely to remain volatile and nervous until there's greater certainty about the scale and length of the developed economies' downturns, and signs of ultimate resolution to the banking and credit crisis.
Outlook for Investment Markets - After rallying in October on the hope that policy interventions had corralled the credit crisis, markets subsequently succumbed in November to renewed fears about the scale of its impact on world economic activity. Forecasts have been wound back globally. Although fiscal and monetary policies are now strongly expansionary in many countries, and there has been a significant fall in the cost of oil, markets continue to be very anxious and hyper-alert to any bad economic news.
Outlook for Investment Markets - The local and world share markets will continue to struggle with weaker commodity prices and economic indicators, even though the worst of the credit crisis appears to have been contained, fiscal and monetary policies have been eased widely, oil prices have dropped substantially, and share valuations have improved. Bond yields are improving relative to cash and are likely to remain more attractive than they have been for some time.
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Headlines about large rises and falls in the world's sharemarkets can frighten and confuse investors. In recent times, we have seen far more than the normal amount of sharemarket volatility and this has led to a great deal of media coverage and a heightened degree of investor anxiety.
Outlook for Investment Markets - The global credit crisis threw financial markets into turmoil over the past month, leading to sharp price rises for safe haven assets (government bonds, gold), and sell-offs for virtually everything else. The outlook remains deeply uncertain despite various US and other government interventions to corral the effects of the crisis.
Anthony Edmonds, from AMP Capital Investors talks about Portfolio Investment Entities (PIEs) and why investing in these Managed Funds can be worth the risk.
It's generally understood that a well-diversified fund includes a range of investments, such as shares, fixed interest and property, selected both locally and internationally.
An overview of local and global economies from AMP Capital Investors.
Outlook for Investment Markets - The key event of the past month was the falling world oil price, which supported sharemarkets everywhere. From here, the outlook for domestic growth assets looks to have improved, as New Zealand moves through the trough of the recent cyclical slowdown
So the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to go early and cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) now, rather than wait until September. The reduction of the OCR from 8.25% to 8.00% is a positive move for the rapidly weakening New Zealand economy and represents the first OCR reduction since 24 July 2003 - exactly five years to the day from this latest cut.
Global Cooling: how volatile will the next few months be? Andrew Hunt - International Economist, Tyndall (Investment Manager for Asteron) comments on the global economy.
PIEs are starting to appeal to New Zealand retail investors, and they are only going to get bigger according to Head of Sales and Marketing for AMP Capital Investors, Anthony Edmonds.
Outlook for Investment Markets - The yield from New Zealand cash is likely to become less attractive going forward, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand moves to cut interest rates.
Concerns about the global credit crunch and the US housing slump have been supplanted by worries about global inflation. This is evident in surging bond yields and tough anti-inflation talk from central banks. The attached Investment Insight looks at the main drivers of rising inflation worldwide and why we think inflation is likely to fall over the medium-term – both globally and in New Zealand.
Outlook for Investment Markets - The local and global economies have been battered by the various effects of the soaring oil price, and growth assets are likely to remain under a cloud until the economic outlook improves. Cash and attractive yields on corporate debt look appealing.
Outlook for Investment Markets - World and Australian shares have rallied as credit crisis risks have abated, but Kiwi shares are lagging as New Zealand heads for a period of slower economic activity. These patterns are likely to continue in coming months. Cash and local fixed interest remain attractive.
Outlook for Investment Markets - Further evidence of slowing growth make the outlook for domestic and global shares less positive, although the New Zealand listed property sector looks oversold. Yields on global corporate bonds are now more attractive than they have been for some time.
An improved tone was the key feature of April following the turmoil of recent months. Although economic data releases were generally on the soft side, there was much relief in markets that global economic and financial market conditions appeared to be stabilising following co-ordinated actions by central banks.
Rabobank's March/April market commentary, brought to you in conjunction with Morningstar, provides an overview of current cash, bond, property and equity market performance as well as some future predictions.
Despite deteriorating global economic conditions, inflation remains a concern globally, not just in New Zealand. Recent readings for inflation in both industrialised and emerging countries were worse than expected. Energy and food prices are the main culprit. The rise in food prices is giving rise to talk of “agflation” and there is much talk about stagflation. This note looks at the main issues
Rabobank's February market commentary, brought to you in conjunction with Morningstar, provides an overview of current cash, bond, property and equity market performance as well as some future predictions.
Concerns in the markets were heightened this month on the back of substantial write-downs of asset values in the banking sector and some weak global economic indicators which raised the possibility of a fall-out from the global credit squeeze. This resulted in falls in global equity markets and increased support for bond markets.
Due to poor economic data and the oil price briefly breaking $US100 a barrel, the US share market has had its worst start to the year since 1904, sending reverberations through global shares. For the past few years we have been optimistic on the outlook for shares, given attractive valuations and elevated projected long-horizon returns. It has proven rewarding to hold or buy on corrections and give the bull market the benefit of the doubt.
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