Where are we in the short and long term share cycles?
Since early March, shares have climbed a classic 'wall of worry' with fears about everything from debt defl ation to policy stimulus causing hyperinfl ation. However, an important issue is how any short term cyclical rebound in shares will fi t into the medium or longer term trend.
By Dr Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy for AMP Capital Investors
Key points
While there will be setbacks along the way, shares have most likely embarked on a short term cyclical upswing that has further to run.
However, various structural constraints - including high debt levels and the need to reverse huge policy stimulus - mean that for US, European and Japanese shares, this should be seen as a cyclical bull market in the context of a weak longer term trend. We are also likely to see shorter, more volatile cycles going forward.
Countries that don't face the same problems will be affected by the same short term cyclical swings as US shares, but against a far more positive trend. This includes Asian and most emerging market countries.
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