A Global Savings Glut? Or Just Deflationary Forces?
One of the reasons that we tend to eschew "black box" forecasting models of any economy (aside from the fact that our econometrics courses now seem to have been a long time ago) is that we suspect that there are simply too many variables and discontinuities for even mathematicians with the skill of the late John Nash to ever really encompass effectively. In this context, one of the least understood or modelling-friendly "variables" within a macroeconomic system is the household savings rate.
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